Events Watchlist #12
NEAR ETF day, INJ burn and mainnet breakout setups
BTC and ETH are both down a little over 3% on the week, but the market outside BTC has held up better and BTC dominance has slipped. That keeps selective event-driven alt trades in play: INJ has the cleanest near-term tokenomics setup, MOCA is trying to confirm a mainnet breakout, RUNE is close to a pre-event trigger, and NEAR looks strong but crowded into ETF day.
Market pulse — Mixed
| Metric | Value | Move |
|---|---|---|
| BTC | $83,955 | -3.6% 7d |
| ETH | $2,717 | -3.1% 7d |
| Market ex-BTC | $1.28T | -0.9% 7d |
| BTC Dominance | 56.7% | -0.7 pts 7d |
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Trade ideas — catalysts landing soon
INJ - Buyback burn
30 Sep · Airdrop/Snapshot, Tokenomics · Impact 7.5 (HIGH)
- Price: -42% vs 12m high · near the upper end of its 3-month range · 30d +46%
- Sector: Decentralized Finance (DeFi) · 30d +38%
Buy INJ if $7.33 keeps holding into the burn
The Sept. 30 buyback burn is a clear next-day tokenomics catalyst, and INJ has already pulled back from the $8.18 close on Sept. 25 and the $8.66 high on Sept. 24 to a $7.41 close on Sept. 28. That reset makes a fresh entry more reasonable than chasing strength. The setup works if the rebound holds above weekly support at $7.33 and keeps reclaiming today's move toward $7.75-$7.77, with $8.32 as the nearest resistance to test. A daily close back under $7.33 would weaken the recovery. If already long, trimming on another rejection near $8.32 is reasonable.
MOCA - Mainnet launch
29 Sep · Release · Impact 7.5 (HIGH)
- Price: -86% vs 12m high · near the upper end of its 3-month range · 30d +24%
- Sector: Decentralized Identifier (DID) · 30d +22%
Buy MOCA only on a close above $0.0108
Moca Chain mainnet goes live today, and price is trying to reclaim the $0.0108 daily resistance that capped the Sept. 28 close at $0.0101. With the token now around $0.0110, the cleaner entry is a confirmed daily close above $0.0108 rather than an intraday chase. If that holds, weekly resistance at $0.0121 is the next nearby level to watch. If the move fades back under $0.0101, or especially under today's $0.0096 low, the breakout attempt is failing. If already long, a stall into $0.0121 is a spot to de-risk.
RUNE - Monero & Zcash chains
By 04 Oct · Impact 7.5 (HIGH)
- Price: -36% vs 12m high · near the upper end of its 3-month range · 30d +64%
- Sector: Decentralized Exchange (DEX) · 30d +46%
Wait for RUNE to close above $0.8189
The Oct. 4 Monero and Zcash chain addition matters most to THORChain because it expands the network's native asset support and pools. RUNE has strong momentum, up 17.8% on the week and near 90-day highs, but it is sitting just under weekly resistance at $0.8189 after Sept. 27 tagged $0.8420 intraday and still closed at $0.7599. The cleaner trade is a daily close above $0.8189, not a chase underneath it. If a breakout cannot hold and price falls back below $0.7738, the pre-event squeeze is fading. If already long, another failure under $0.8189 would justify some profit-taking.
NEAR - Bitwise NEAR ETF debut
29 Sep · Regulation · Impact 8.0 (HIGH)
- Price: -7% vs 12m high · near the upper end of its 3-month range · 30d +166%
- Sector: Artificial Intelligence (AI) · 30d +72%
Wait for NEAR to retake $5.38 after ETF day
The Bitwise NEAR launch is a meaningful access catalyst, but NEAR is already up 166% in 30 days and trading only 7% below its 12-month high. After reaching a $5.57 high on Sept. 27 and closing Sept. 28 at $4.82, today's recovery to about $5.02 still leaves it below the $5.38 highest recent close. A fresh entry looks better only if price can reclaim $5.38 and then lean on weekly resistance at $5.86. If it slips back through $4.68, the launch-day bid is not holding. If already long, another rejection in the $5.38-$5.57 area is a reasonable place to lock some gains.
Coming up — major events
15 Oct - FIL: Vesting Program Ends - HIGH. FIL's vesting program ends, cutting gross issuance by roughly 75%, the largest supply change since mainnet launch.
Q3 2026 - SOL: Alpenglow Mainnet - HIGH. Alpenglow is a long-term consensus upgrade using BLS cryptography to tighten timing and cut finalization latency while preserving safety.
Q3 2026 - SAFE: Onchain Enforcement - HIGH. Safenet moves from observing transactions to enforcing protection onchain inside everyday account operations.
By 20 Oct - KNTQ: Elysium Mainnet Launch - HIGH. Elysium, Kinetiq's value-accretive L2 for Hyperliquid, launches its mainnet following the four-week public test run that begins with the 22 September testnet.
Just added — further ahead
21 Oct - AERO: Multi-chain launch - HIGH. Aero launches across seven chains: Base, Ethereum Mainnet, Arc, OP Mainnet, Ink, Robinhood Chain, and Arbitrum.
23 Oct - SEI: Staked SEI ETF Effective - HIGH. The REXShares and Osprey Funds Staked SEI ETF filing is set to become effective on October 23.
General market commentary, not personalised investment advice. Crypto trading is high risk: you can lose all the money you invest. Leverage increases risk. Trade scenarios are conditional and may fail.